The Imminent Absence of Arafat

"Yasser Arafat never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Abba Eban


I think things can happen now that would never have happened with him alive. Much will depend on what Hamas does and what the PA can do about Hamas – Hamas and Al-Aqsa Martyrs gain in the short-term, on the ground with recruits, but the US will not deal with Hamas as a political actor. The PA and Fatah will then have yet another opportunity to reform itself, to become moderate leaders, to become statesmen. They will have to offer their people more than Hamas-lite, something more than "a bit less violence" or " a bit more sovereignty".

Arafat's removal is undoubtedly another opportunity for that, but only an opportunity. It will require enormous courage from PA leaders to marginalize Hamas and other militants. We have yet to see such courage. But maybe. Perhaps the intifada has been enough of a failure to force the Palestinians to give up destroying Israel. Perhaps.

There will be magic in the air – lots of hope and lots of anger – and it might also become true movement. If Bush is re-elected it helps Israel immensely – with Kerry it’s all up in the air again, (but the American pro-Israel community will most likely scare him to serious action).
Bush could do more, and more quickly, due to his fear level in the Arab world – they know he will do what it takes to protect Israel. Kerry probably will – but more out of political expediency than his character. No one in the Arab world is the tiniest bit afraid of John Kerry.

For the PA to step up and have the courage to make peace will be both essential and shockingly out of character. But it's one more opportunity.